Now Is the Time to Find the Eurovision Betting Value
Author:
Roy Brindley
The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest – the 67th edition of the competition – is now five months away. Despite the long wait, betting markets are open, and one Eurovision favorite has already been beaten.
Security concerns caused by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine meant the defending champions had to forfeit the right to host the show. On July 25th it was announced the UK – as the runner-up in the competition staged two months earlier – would be the new host country.
Ukrainian folk-rap group Kalush Orchestra won the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest. ?GettyImages
The BBC, as the country’s state broadcaster, then threw open a bidding process for the right to stage the show. Twenty towns and cities – spread across England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales – immediately expressed their interest.
Which City Won the Rights to Host Eurovision?
An initial shortlist featured Birmingham, Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, and Sheffield. Glasgow had been the novelty bookmakers’ favorite from the outset, and the Scottish city now went odds-on.
Birmingham – the city that had only recently concluded the Commonwealth Games – was second best at 7/2. Only Manchester, at 6/1, seemed to have a chance of upsetting its rivals. But, to the surprise of punters and bookmakers, Liverpool made the final shortlist of two on September 27th.
Liverpool had been available on 20/1 when seven cities were in contention. In a straight fight against Glasgow, the Merseyside city was still an underdog priced at 13/8. On October 7th, the European Broadcast Union and the BBC announced the outsider was the chosen city for the 2023 contest.
What Are the Latest Eurovision Odds?
No longer a member of the European Union but with home advantage, the UK has been installed as 6/1 second favorites to land the contest for the first time since 1997. Reigning champions, Ukraine, is 2/1 with the leading Eurovision betting sites.
Perennially short in the early betting – despite no indication of the acts that will represent them – Italy (7/1) and Sweden (9/1) follow in the list. Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Georgia are at the foot of the betting. All four can be backed at 200/1.
But the markets will undergo significant change in the coming weeks and months as selection shows – deciding which acts and songs will represent the 37 countries due to contest the show in 2023 – are staged. The first on the calendar is Ukraine.
Listen to the 10 songs in the running to represent Ukraine at #Eurovision 2023 ????
They’ll choose the winner on Saturday 17 December ??https://t.co/dknhvtX9wa
— Eurovision Song Contest (@Eurovision) December 1, 2022
The Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine (UA:PBC) will broadcast its selection show – called Vidbir – on December 17th live from Kyiv. Ten acts are in contention. Unsurprisingly many have titled their tunes with a theme appropriate to the predicament the besieged country currently finds itself in. Songs include Heart of Steel, Alive, I’m Not Alone, Stronger and When God Shut The Door.
Dates for the Eurovision Diary
Following four shows, Albania will also make its decision in December. But things hot up in January. Estonia’s Eesti Laul, Belgium’s Eurosong 2023, Malta’s Malta Eurovision Song Contest 2023, Norway’s Melodi Grand Prix, and Spain’s Benidorm Fest will all get underway during the month.
The first week of February sees the major selection shows begin. One, Italy’s Festival di Sanremo, is something of a national institution. Now in its 73rd year, in 2023, 28 acts will perform over five nights. All hope to win their place in the Eurovision field.
In 2022, over 13 million television viewers watched the deciding show live. Without doubt, on the day following its 2023 broadcast – February 11th – online betting sites will be inundated with bet requests and Italy’s Eurovision odds will collapse.
Sweden’s Chances Enhanced by Numbers
If you are going to back Italy to win Eurovision 2023, the advice is to do so early. Sweden’s Melodifestivalen is a similarly massive event, and now could be the best time to support the country that famously claimed the 1974 Eurovision with ABBA and Waterloo.
Melodifestivalen will be broadcast over six weeks beginning on February 4th. Encompassing five venues, 28 acts will take part. A remarkable 2,800 artists applied. And, underlining its importance in Swedish culture, statistics suggest the March 11th final will attract 75 percent of the viewing market. Almost half of Sweden’s adult population will watch the final.
1985, 1995 and 2009 winners, Norway will also make its choice – via the Melodi Grand Prix shows – during February. Estonia, Romania, Denmark and Estonia will decide on their representative on February 11th.
The UK Sticks With 2022 Formula and Germany Turns to TikTok
Of the ‘big five’ – countries that have an automatic fast-pass to the Eurovision final – Germany has not put a timeframe on producing a candidate. Interestingly German acts that fancy a trip to Liverpool have been invited to submit their songs and present themselves to the TikTok community under the hashtag #UnserLiedFürLiverpool.
Barbara Pravi, representing France, came second in the 2021 Eurovision singing Voilà. ?GettyImages
France – currently 18/1 in the betting – is coy about plans to nominate its candidate. The nation came second in 2021 with the emotive Voilà. But they have not won the contest since 1977 and came last in 2014.
The latest news from the BBC on a UK candidate for the Eurovision 2023 came in September when a press release stated: “For the 2023 Contest the BBC and BBC Studios will once again be collaborating with TaP Music, the global management and music publishing company behind some of the world’s most successful pop artists – such as Lana del Rey, Ellie Goulding, London Grammar, Dermot Kennedy and Mabel – to choose a song and act that will represent the United Kingdom.”
The 2023 collaboration follows a successful 2022 partnership debut which saw Sam Ryder and his song Space Man finish in second position. It was the United Kingdom’s best result since 1998 and gave the country its first top-three result since 2002.
